Introduction
There is a fair bit of data here just to annoy you. It’s also not in the best format but suck it up and stick with it as the story is worth at least a couple of brain cells. This article analyses the ability of each team to get over the line and highlights a couple of issues in regards to injuries. All raw data pinched on 28 April 2010 from:
- SuperXV.com: http://livescores.smh.com.au/rugby/super15/player-stats.html
- RugbyHeaven: http://livescores.smh.com.au/rugby/super15/player-stats.html
Overall position on the log
Reds and Blues are even but the Reds pip the Blues on points difference (just). The Stormers fill out the other conference leader for South Africa and desirably so based on the total points (37) but they have had 2 Byes. This and the way there are 3 NZ sides in the top 6 does dispel some of the weak comp myths surrounding the final spots. Arguably Australia has the weakest comp with 3 teams ranked 10 or less. The NZ conference is the closest with only one win separating the Blues from both the Crusaders and Highlanders.
The gap between the top 6 and the rest is widening up. Between the Highlanders and the Tahs there is 6 points (more than one win), while the Bulls are a further 6 points behind the Tahs. After that it’s just messy but to say the least bonus points for the Bye makes some teams (Cheetahs and Brumbies) look better than they really are tracking. By the way let’s face it the Hurricanes are not playing good rugby this year with only 2 wins. I really hope that statement doesn’t bite me on the arse this weekend.
Table 1 Ranking after round 10
|
Rank |
Team |
Played |
Win |
Loss |
Draw |
Bye |
Points |
||||
|
For |
Against |
Difference |
Bonus |
Total |
|||||||
|
1 |
Reds |
9 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
259 |
162 |
97 |
3 |
39 |
|
2 |
Blues |
9 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
256 |
194 |
62 |
5 |
39 |
|
3 |
Stormers |
8 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
187 |
110 |
77 |
1 |
37 |
|
4 |
Crusaders |
9 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
274 |
135 |
139 |
5 |
35 |
|
5 |
Highlanders |
9 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
207 |
189 |
18 |
2 |
34 |
|
6 |
Sharks |
9 |
6 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
233 |
167 |
66 |
6 |
34 |
|
7 |
Waratahs |
9 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
209 |
153 |
56 |
4 |
28 |
|
8 |
Bulls |
9 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
197 |
230 |
-33 |
2 |
22 |
|
9 |
Chiefs |
9 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
191 |
202 |
-11 |
5 |
21 |
|
10 |
Brumbies |
8 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
2 |
165 |
226 |
-61 |
5 |
21 |
|
11 |
W.Force |
9 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
178 |
245 |
-67 |
2 |
20 |
|
12 |
Rebels |
9 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
179 |
322 |
-143 |
3 |
19 |
|
13 |
Hurricanes |
9 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
184 |
253 |
-69 |
4 |
18 |
|
14 |
Cheetahs |
9 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
188 |
242 |
-54 |
7 |
15 |
|
15 |
Lions |
10 |
1 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
208 |
285 |
-77 |
6 |
10 |
Total points Scored & how they are scored.
In scoring points the crusaders are the best not only in total points scored (274) but they also have scored the most tries (31) see Table 2. They are close to identical with the percentage of points (73%) from tries as both the Blues (30 tries) and NSW (only 25 tries). However, they don’t have the domination they used to in regards to total points with as the gap from the Reds is only 15 points and 18 points to the Blues. A couple more losses and it will get closer.
The Stormers are still the hardest team to get points against as they have only let in 110 points. While the Crusaders have the biggest point difference 139 thanks to both their attacking prowess and their second best defence (135). The Brumbies, Force and Rebels (3 Aus sides) just have shit all in attack with the worst 3 efforts so far. By the way the Brumbies have already had their second BYE and the only thing between them and the bottom of the conference is the Rebels inability to defend as they are the worst defending side in the comp.
The Stormers and Western Force need some particular attention here as they both rely on getting over 56% of all their points from penalties. Both of those sides have only crossed the chalk line 12 times in 8 games (Stormers) and 9 games (Force). Lets face it with Grant injured they are going to struggle this weekend. While if O’Connor gets injured the Force are really going to struggle as in Table 3 he is also their top try scorer.
On a side note the Reds have the most drop goals in the comp. Cooper (see Table 4) has been mixing up his game and lets face it has the opposition worried with what the hell is he going to do. Hint not even his team mates know.
Table 2: How do they get the points?
|
Tries |
Cons |
Pen |
DG |
TOTAL |
|
Points tries |
Points Penalties |
|
|
Blues |
30 |
20 |
21 |
1 |
256 |
|
74% |
25% |
|
Brumbies |
16 |
8 |
22 |
1 |
165 |
|
58% |
40% |
|
Bulls |
18 |
13 |
25 |
2 |
197 |
|
59% |
38% |
|
Cheetahs |
18 |
13 |
22 |
2 |
188 |
|
62% |
35% |
|
Chiefs |
20 |
11 |
23 |
0 |
191 |
|
64% |
36% |
|
Crusaders |
31 |
22 |
24 |
1 |
274 |
|
73% |
26% |
|
Highlanders |
23 |
13 |
22 |
0 |
207 |
|
68% |
32% |
|
Hurricanes |
17 |
9 |
27 |
0 |
184 |
|
56% |
44% |
|
Lions |
19 |
10 |
29 |
2 |
208 |
|
55% |
42% |
|
Rebels |
19 |
12 |
20 |
0 |
179 |
|
66% |
34% |
|
Reds |
27 |
20 |
25 |
3 |
259 |
|
68% |
29% |
|
Sharks |
26 |
17 |
23 |
0 |
233 |
|
70% |
30% |
|
Stormers |
12 |
11 |
35 |
0 |
187 |
|
44% |
56% |
|
Waratahs |
25 |
15 |
18 |
0 |
209 |
|
74% |
26% |
|
Western Force |
12 |
8 |
34 |
0 |
178 |
|
43% |
57% |
Try Scorer Details
Table 3 is a big old mess. Lets try and explain it using the Blues. The Blues have scored 30 tries. They have had a total of 14 players cross the chalk. Ranger has scored 6 tries, Payne 5 trues and Mathewson 3. These 3 players have scored 47% of the total tries for the Blues and Ranger by himself has scored one in every 5 tries (20%).
Now Maitland is still this seasons try scoring machine on 8, there are 5 players who have scored 6 tries and Thompson is the only forward in that list. Interestingly the Hurricanes have only scored 17 tries but Gear has 2 and the rest of the other 15 players have scored a try each. Basically what this means is that it doesn’t matter who in the Hurricanes is injured they have all a equal chance of scoring a try, if they could. While Basson (Bulls) and Pretorius (Cheetahs) have scored 1/3 of their teams tries. The Reds, Rebels, Sharks and Lions are the other side’s where tries are fairly evenly spread through the team.
Table 3
|
No. Of Tries |
No. Of Try Scorers |
Top 3 Try Scorers |
TOP 3 |
Top |
|||
|
Blues |
30 |
14 |
R Ranger |
J Payne |
A Mathewson |
||
|
6 |
5 |
3 |
47% |
20% |
|||
|
Brumbies |
16 |
11 |
M Giteau |
B Alexander |
H Speight |
||
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
44% |
19% |
|||
|
Bulls |
18 |
11 |
B Basson |
F du Preez |
D Rossouw |
||
|
6 |
2 |
2 |
56% |
33% |
|||
|
Cheetahs |
18 |
10 |
S Pretorius |
A Strauss |
R Smit |
||
|
6 |
2 |
2 |
56% |
33% |
|||
|
Chiefs |
20 |
12 |
L Masaga |
S Waldrom |
T Nanai-Williams |
||
|
4 |
3 |
2 |
45% |
20% |
|||
|
Crusaders |
31 |
13 |
S Maitland |
I Dagg |
R Fruean |
||
|
8 |
5 |
4 |
55% |
26% |
|||
|
Highlanders |
23 |
11 |
A Thomson |
K Poki |
S Piutau |
||
|
6 |
4 |
3 |
57% |
26% |
|||
|
Hurricanes |
17 |
16 |
H Gear |
D Kirkpatrick |
A Cruden |
||
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
24% |
12% |
|||
|
Lions |
19 |
13 |
W Whiteley |
J Taute |
J Strauss |
||
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
37% |
16% |
|||
|
Rebels |
19 |
15 |
C Vuna |
H Pyle |
A Campbell |
||
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
37% |
16% |
|||
|
Reds |
27 |
14 |
L Morahan |
Q Cooper |
M Harris |
||
|
4 |
3 |
3 |
37% |
15% |
|||
|
Sharks |
26 |
15 |
B du Plessis |
L Mvovo |
W Alberts |
||
|
3 |
3 |
3 |
35% |
12% |
|||
|
Stormers |
12 |
9 |
J Fourie |
D Fourie |
P Louw |
||
|
3 |
2 |
1 |
50% |
25% |
|||
|
Waratahs |
25 |
15 |
D Mitchell |
K Beale |
A Pakalani |
||
|
6 |
3 |
2 |
44% |
24% |
|||
|
Western Force |
12 |
8 |
J O'Connor |
D Smith |
N Cummins |
||
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
58% |
25% |
|||
Best Individuals
5 players have got 100 points or better. 3 are Australian (O’Connor, Cooper and Giteau) each have 3 tries to their name. In fact the scary thing is that there are 5 Aussie based players in the top 10. There are 3 SA and only 2 kiwis. I know Carter has been injured but hell it’s still fun to rub it in.
Table 4
|
|
Player |
Team |
TRIES |
CONS |
PENS |
DGs |
Total Points |
|
1 |
J O'Connor |
Western Force |
3 |
6 |
33 |
0 |
126 |
|
2 |
Q Cooper |
Reds |
3 |
15 |
22 |
3 |
120 |
|
3 |
M Steyn |
Bulls |
0 |
13 |
25 |
2 |
107 |
|
4 |
M Giteau |
Brumbies |
3 |
8 |
22 |
1 |
100 |
|
5 |
P Grant |
Stormers |
0 |
8 |
28 |
0 |
100 |
|
6 |
D Cipriani |
Rebels |
1 |
12 |
20 |
0 |
89 |
|
7 |
P Lambie |
Sharks |
2 |
14 |
17 |
0 |
89 |
|
8 |
K Beale |
Waratahs |
3 |
12 |
16 |
0 |
87 |
|
9 |
D Carter |
Crusaders |
1 |
14 |
17 |
0 |
84 |
|
10 |
D Kirkpatrick |
Hurricanes |
1 |
7 |
19 |
0 |
76 |
Predictions for future rounds:
- Tahs are going to struggle without their top try scorer in Mitchell.
- The Crusaders cannot afford to have Maitland injured
- If any of the top 5 points scorers for the Aussie sides gets injured, bet against them
- The stormers will grind to a rapid halt without Grant.
- The Sharks may yet take the SA conference with their balance with 70% of points coming from tries and their tries come from all players in the team. They also have had one Bye to the Stormers 2.
- Reds should win the Aus conference
- NZ conference is wide open still
