Finally Oct 3 approaches. When I first scanned my eye across the 98 NPC schedule in early August one game jumped out at me as having the potential to be a classic, the Oct 3rd match between Waikato and Canterbury.

While pre-season punters were picking Waikato and defending champs Canterbury to be in the running for this years NPC title the key attraction to this game is that the Ranfurly Shield (the hallowed log of wood) was likely to be on the line.

Of course there was no guarentee that Waikato would still have the shield at this point in the season, but after the narrow victory (24-23) against an AB-less Auckland in the first week of the competition they have hardly broken a sweat defending the shield against Southland (95-7), North Harbour (39-22) and Northland (63-22).

So we come to week 8 of the 98 NPC, and the big game that we hoped for is upon us. Let's take a look at the factors that could affect the outcome of this match.

Motivation/Support

Canterbury and Waikato are sitting first and second on the points table.

The winner of this game will take the top spot into the semis (and the all important guarentee of a home semi) with the loser most likely slipping to third (working on the assumption that Otago will crucify Southland this weekend).

If Waikato can win this one then they can lock the Shield up for another year, given their last round robin game is in Taranaki next week.

The fact that the last time Waikato lost the shield was to Canterbury (in 1994) has got to be a motivating factor for both teams.

In terms of fan support Waikato have to get the edge given the game is at home in Hamilton. Having said that Air NZ are reportedly putting on 3 extra planes from Chch to Hamilton especially for the game, so I expect the Canterbury support to be very strong, just ever so slightly out-numbered!

The edge goes to: Waikato (just, mainly due to the home ground advantage)

Build-up

Waikato has had by far the better build-up. Their only loss of the season (to Wellington in week 5) is now a distant memory, and they have put in two very good performances, both shield defences, in the last two weeks. Withstanding a strong challenge from North Harbour and posting 63 points against Northland in an easy win.

Canterbury however is reeling from their narrow escape against North Harbour last week. Sure they won the game, but to only win by 2 points when you are up by 21 at half time that is just not good enough.
They put in a solid performance against the gritty Naki boys the week before (the Naki have to be in line for a most-improved award this season!) but you are generally only as good as your last performance.

The edge goes to: Waikato

Injuries/Suspensions

Now I have never been fond of anyone that uses injuries or suspensions as an excuse for a loss, but they are definitely a factor. Also bear in mind that Rugbyheads isn't the definitive source on player injuries, and as such these details may change by the time Saturday rolls around.

Canterbury -

• Steve Lancaster (lock): Lancaster was quite rightly suspended for a week after being found guilty of punching Troy Flavell in the Nth Harbour game. (THE BIG DORK!!)
• Norm Maxwell (lock): Maxwell is listed as unlikely to suit up for the game. He injured himself at training this week.
• Angus Gardiner (loose forward): I saw Gardiner on TV last night running around as part of a training session, so there is hope yet, but officially he is listed as doubtful to play after tweaking his knee in the Nth Harbour game.

Waikato -

• No known injury/suspension worries.

The edge goes to: Waikato

Probable Starting Lineups & Comparisions

OK, so this is stretching it a bit, particularly given I'm not hugely knowledgable of the Waikato forward pack, and there are a few question marks over the Canterbury lineup, but I think it's not a bad analysis!

A summary of my reading of the head-to-head matchups would be:

The Waikato back 3 are world-class, with the two wingers being in sublime form. If the Waikato forward pack and inside backs can get enough ball to these guys then they will win the game for them. The Canterbury back 3 are very capable but don't have the class of these guys. If you include Scott McCleod in there too you have some potent attacking weapons.

Where Canterbury have the advantage is in the key inside back positions, particularly Halfback and First Five, but also at 2nd Five, with Bubs and his bone-crunching defense. If Marshall and Mehrtens have great games then the Cantabs should get ample opportunities to win it.

The loose forward battle should be a epic one. at least 4 of the 6 (probable) starting loosies have either worn the black jersey or are knocking on the door.

With Lancaster and Maxwell out Waikato will have a big advantage in the locks. Jack and Thorne have played well this year, but they will be up against the class, size and experience of Willis and Cooksley. The defence of the loosies and the locks will be a big factor.

As I said I'm not too familiar with the Waikato forwards, particularly the front row, but I think the Cantabs should have the wood on the Mooloos in this key area, and that is where you have to dominate in order to control the game.

The edge goes to: Canterbury (but only narrowly)

So there you have it. My reading of the big game ahead.

Overall I would have to say that Waikato are the favourites, but it is going to be a very tight thing. The TAB can't even seperate the two teams, they are currently paying $1.85 each way.

Having said that I'm sure my Canterbury boys can do it. They have proved that they can get up for the big games, and have huge self-belief.

So that's enough from me . Good luck to the Mooloos, and GO CANTERBURY!!!!!!!

JC

Ah, I see. Set the Cantabs up to be the underdogs just to make the inevitable victory that much sweeter! I like the way this guys thinks!
Let us know what you think!