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Author Topic: 2010: Super 14 Round 12: Arrgh shit my heart  (Read 1154 times)
Geeves
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« on: April 27, 2010, 01:56:14 PM »

Intro:
Damn it’s such a huge change being a supporter when your team is actually in for a chance of making the finals.  My heart is palpitating and watching the last 2 games have almost given me a f##king stroke, I lost my voice at the game and struggled home around about 3 am with nothing left in the wallet.  I’m still struggling with the improvement and part of me still thinks I’m dreaming (Yes I know I need help).  After facing all SA sides in a row its now back into ANZAC country and firstly to deal with the Brumbies.  Arrgh shit its going to do me in.

 Wink Highlanders vs Waratahs  Tongue
Well firstly it’s in Invercargill I think what the highlanders are going to do is freeze the Tahs to death.  The Tahs have a good record against the Highlanders but they are injury depleted up front and in the lossie department, morally bankrupt and let’s face it about as interesting to watch as paint dry.  Its fun listening to Tahs supporter’s state that they are third on the try scoring list and only 1 less try than the Reds (34).  Then you remind them 11 tries were against the Lions and 5 against both the Cheetahs and Blues so over 60% of their tries were in 3 games only.
The Highlanders have been really hit and miss this season.  They can score but their defence has been terrible in stages (Force game).  I would like the Highlanders to win this game to create some breathing space but I just don’t think they can do it.  I just hoping they don’t get 4 tries scored against them.  NSW by 5 Cheesy .

 Grin Stormers vs Crusaders
Now this should be a great match.  God knows who is going to win this, I sure as hell don’t. Two plays three on the ladder and a loss can make either side drop out of the top 4.  They are both off a loss and serious time zone changes.  But the stormers are sleeping in their own bed and that may make all the difference.   Stormers by  Shocked 3, neither side will score 4 tries.

 Wink Hurricanes vs Chiefs
Two of the potential title shots, shot their season sometime ago now.  The Hurricanes have a slight chance but hell a lot of games would have to go their way for them to sneak in.  The chiefs are probably investigating Donald’s bank account after that effort with the boot.  So the chiefs have not won a game at home this year.  That has got to hurt.
Um arggh lets give it the Hurricanes  Cheesy  by 8.

 Huh Brumbies vs Reds  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin
My match of the round.  Arguably the Nags are QLD nemesis as they have only beaten them once.  Real Madrid really didn’t happen.  Injuries, disharmony, out of form players and dodgy ref calls (NSW game only) have destroyed them.  QLD well I have spoken about them enough.
Best news for QLD, Steve Walsh will be controlling the game again. But he pick on QLD this week.  Who know?  My poor heart.
I think it might be in my interest to send the family out to the moves this game.  It’s going to get loud abusive and potentially fatal for me.  QLD  Grin by 8 and possibly 1 corpse.

 Cheesy Cheetahs vs Blues
Go the Cheetahs.  Back at home but up against the Blues who would have marked this game for 5 points.  I didn’t see the Blues get spanked last week.  Blues still have a shot but I think the Cheetahs back at home will offer a hell of a lot more backbone than they did on the road.  Blues  Grin  to get this in the end though by about 8.

 Huh Lions vs Western Force  Grin
Lions suck.  I’m not too sure if a team has lost every game in a season but the Lions are having a clear shot for the spoon.  Go the force and make the chiefs petrified that they may end up lower on the log than you are. Force  Grin by 15.

 Grin Bulls vs Sharks  Grin
Bulls are now back at home but they are up against the Sharks.  This is going to be a huge game.  Not only are saffa jumpers up for grabs but the Sharks are going to want to make up for a poor season start.  I reckon there is going to be huge feeling in this game and it may well get really niggly.  Bulls should have enough all around the park to win but it will only be just.  Bulls  Grin by 3.
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Geeves
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2010, 11:51:21 AM »

I'm not impressed that Steve Walsh got dropped for this game and after how Giteau vented his frustration he cops a 5K fine only.

So a different ref for the game and injuries galore for both sides.  However, I still believe that the QLD will get this game.
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2010, 07:09:56 PM »

The RugbyMatrix showed one of its big failings in its current build for that game - it picked the Brumbies 39 over the Reds 20.  Half the averages it relies on are based on the past two encounters by the teams, so even though the Reds are on fire this season, the RugbyMatrix struggles to recognise this.

Potentially at the end of this season I'm going to attempt a rebuild in time for the ITM Cup to allow the sheet to give more of a weighting to current form, but I need to carefully work through the implications of that before I put it in to practice.  This current version has netted me probably around $7000 over the last two years ($6500 in one big windfall).
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Geeves
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2010, 09:43:16 AM »

Keep up with the rugbymatrix and enjoy working on it.

By the way thankyou stormers for thrashing the Crusaders and the highlanders demolishing the Tahs.  Based on those result, the Reds are guaranted 3rd spot on the log even if they loose to the Brumbies.  If the Reds win wioth 4 tries they will then be 2nd.
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Geeves
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2010, 11:17:28 AM »

Ks.  Based on those result, the Reds are guaranted 3rd spot on the log even if they loose to the Brumbies. 

However, as the Reds were spanked by the Brumbies they are now in 4th by 1 point in the for and aganist.
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2010, 01:25:50 PM »

Keep up with the rugbymatrix and enjoy working on it.

Based on those result, the Reds are guaranted 3rd spot on the log even if they loose to the Brumbies. 

it's been a great season but they really needed the win over the Brumbies...just getting a little ahead of yourself Geeves. Next week they travel to the Canes and could easily go down by 4 tries and drop to 7th and if the Tahs beat the chiefs then the final round winner of the Tahs and Canes will see them finish 4th.
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Geeves
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2010, 10:51:52 AM »

last game for the Reds is the highlanders.  Now the highlanders have knocked the Reds out of the final run on a couple of occassions damn but its been an exciting season.

Big weekend of upsets by the Highlanders, Cheetahs & lets face it Brumbies who have played like shit all season until that game when they turned on the bullyboy routine.  While the Chiefs could have but didn't beat the hurricanes.  While the  spanking of the crusaders by the Stormers made one hell of a weekend.
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2010, 07:10:36 PM »

It's a funny oddity of this season that suddenly the Canes meet the Reds and Waratahs in the next two weeks.  I can see the Canes getting up and beating the Waratahs, but not so sure about their ability to beat the resurgent Reds.  Defensively the Hurricanes are coughing up a lot of easy points, and their inability to secure their own ball at the breakdown is putting them under even more pressure than they need to be.  With Quade Cooper and Daniel Braid lurking, the Reds are poised to expose both of these weaknesses.

Given that the Canes have been going on a mathmatical chance for the last couple of weeks, I'd be gobsmacked if they managed to play this get out of jail card after such a poor start to the season.
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Geeves
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2010, 01:23:23 PM »

With the Reds injury ravaged in the pack they are in for a good shot.  Weeks is already out, Briad may be out both last weeks locks are out.  Van Humphries is back and Samo (former wallaby and Brumby in 2004) will be probably starting but Briad and weeks are big losses while lets face it Samo's best days are over.
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2010, 03:45:57 PM »

And I won't get to see the match, will be getting home from work then straight back into town for the League test at AAMI Park

Should set up a thriller against the Waratahs... which they've won before over in Sydney in the last round, that said it gave them home semi final advantage rather than a place in the semis
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2010, 09:55:43 PM »

Geeves...what is your prediction on where the reds will finish? I think 1 and 2 are locked up with both Semi Finals being held in SA.
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Geeves
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2010, 02:46:42 PM »

Geeves...what is your prediction on where the reds will finish? I think 1 and 2 are locked up with both Semi Finals being held in SA.

Anywhere from 4 to 7 is not unrealistic at this stage.  I'm not brimming with confidence about this week and I hate to mention the number of times the Highlanders have knocked QLD out of the finals race.  Its a logjam at the moment and teams are going to need around about 40 points on the table to make it into the finals. 

If they can get a couple of points against the Hurricanes and win against the Highlanders then they will go close but.  My money is still on the Bulls to win the comp.  Although I love being wrong.




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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2010, 04:40:11 PM »

Geeves...what is your prediction on where the reds will finish? I think 1 and 2 are locked up with both Semi Finals being held in SA.

Anywhere from 4 to 7 is not unrealistic at this stage.  I'm not brimming with confidence about this week and I hate to mention the number of times the Highlanders have knocked QLD out of the finals race.  Its a logjam at the moment and teams are going to need around about 40 points on the table to make it into the finals. 

If they can get a couple of points against the Hurricanes and win against the Highlanders then they will go close but.  My money is still on the Bulls to win the comp.  Although I love being wrong.






Yeah I think the Bulls will win. The Stormers are the only ones close to being able to match them. The NZ teams including the Crusaders are fairly awful at the mo, and the Oz sides, even thou they are more consistent, don't have the firepower to beat the Bulls. Bulls for me!

cheers
DH

ps - go Georgia!
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"Its not fair!!! *sob* *sniff* ..."

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Geeves
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2010, 08:12:45 AM »



ps - go Georgia!

Where's that kidney
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2010, 08:26:37 AM »

Ha! think I might hold onto it for a while. Not getting any younger!!!

Well thank you Sharks! You've kept the Hurricanes, Crusaders, Waratahs & Reds all interesting in the final week of the comp!

Thought the Crusaders sis well against the Bulsl. Showed they are beatable at home!

cheers
DH
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"Its not fair!!! *sob* *sniff* ..."

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