RWC predictions

[Geeves]

Well somebody had to do this.

I really can't see anyone outside of the above 4 winning this.  But I could be wrong.  I would love to be wrong.  But somehow these 4 sides are the only logical ones.

The real question I have is when will the All Blacks choke?

[gluck]

We will win if we don't outsmart ourselves but unfortunately I think there are a number of selection headaches which make us vulnerable.

At fullback it is experience v matchwinning potential. I think Henry despite his quip will go with Mills over Dagg. Dagg is more explosive and I think is a match winner at offers more on attack. But Henry will stick with Mills.

In the midfield Nonu and Smith are fantastic together but an injury here sees Kahui or Sonny Bill promoted. I don't want to rant. Kahui is too injury prone, Sonny is too loose.

In the forwards, I hope Williams Whitelock and Thorn stay fit. I can't believe how much Mileage Boric scored against a weak Irish team. Donnelly has impressed me more in his time as an All Black, but people have short memories and the media constantly played down his performances.

Other than that its a good squad, love the lose forward mix of Read Kaino, Mccaw and Vito off the Bench.  Obviously still a Sivi fan and don't think Zac is ready but its done now.

We will win if we don't choke because I think we are the best squad at the world cup.

[jules]

I picked the Blackness. May it be all consuming! 

We will win if we don't outsmart ourselves but unfortunately I think there are a number of selection headaches which make us vulnerable.

At fullback it is experience v matchwinning potential. I think Henry despite his quip will go with Mills over Dagg. Dagg is more explosive and I think is a match winner at offers more on attack. But Henry will stick with Mills.

I agree gluck, and if Mils gets the nod then Dagg may even miss out on the bench spot for big games if the more versatile Toeava is healthy. The same goes for Kahui & Money-Bill, they may well not get a run in the big games if they don't crack the starting lineup.

In the forwards, I hope Williams Whitelock and Thorn stay fit. I can't believe how much Mileage Boric scored against a weak Irish team. Donnelly has impressed me more in his time as an All Black, but people have short memories and the media constantly played down his performances.

Again I agree, but I hope that the 3 wise men aren't swayed by anything the media might have to say. Toeava's inside-running to get re-selected when healthy would support that too.

Jules

[Teach]

.. the All Blacks choke?

I find it funny when people try to tease me with this. When people say the ABs "choked", they are saying they were a vastly superior team and therefore should win with absolute certainty.

This is an astonishingly worshipful and humble attitude for highly ranked opposition to take 

Frankly I think the ABs have choked twice - both times against France. Those certainly seemed like games they should have won with ease. In all the other so-called chokes they were clearly not a superior team. (In 1995 I make a distinction between choking and vomiting  )

The 2011 version is not a superior team either. I think they are the best team, but not "superior". Therefore they are the most likely team to win with maybe a 35% chance. Wallabies ~ 30% (I would have the Wallabies higher due to the draw, but they have a problem with England similar to our problem with France). Boks ~ 20%. England and all others 15%

[jules]

I find it funny when people try to tease me with this. When people say the ABs "choked", they are saying they were a vastly superior team and therefore should win with absolute certainty.

This is an astonishingly worshipful and humble attitude for highly ranked opposition to take 

Geeves is well known for his astonishing worshipfulness and humility so that must be the answer. 

I guess in order for a team/player to be seen as a "choker" they really have to be the favourite who comes up short, not the underdog who doesn't quite sneak the win they weren't supposed to get. One of the few advantages I can see to not being an All Black fan.

Jules

[EREHWON WARRIORS]

This Rugby World Cup will for the first time ever highlight the the most adventurous teams. With law changes favouring the team in possession (at last! ) those who retain the pill for the longest will triumph!

I Believe that the Australsian teams have perennially been the most consistent in this area and also the greatest when it comes to 15-man (and now even 22-man) Rugby.

I am excited by the squad selected and trust that our crew will come though and win deservedly ending 24 years of pain!

Cheers,
 Baz

P.S. Great to be back! Thanks for the reminder pricking my guilty conscience Jules!

[jules]

Baz is back!

Welcome back Baz, looking forward to helping you work on that mammoth post count.

Might be time to change the avatar image though mate, I think Cully is officially a veteran now! (much like us I guess!  )

Cheers, Jules

[Geeves]

Me stir?  Hell yes.

Yes well basically I expect NZ to be bloody hard to beat come the RWC time as lets face it the ABs have kicked the shit out of most sides between each RWC.  Probably the only exception was 2003 as lets face it the poms where bloody good but you didn't play them.

Thankfully Jules placed that wonderful song on the front page.  While I'm in rugby heaven at the moment as Foxtel has dedicated an entire channel to the RWC and at the moment its playing classic matches and I have been lapping it up.  So lets examine NZ efforts and discuss the infamous choke.

1991 RWC info from here .  Well hell you blokes rocked in as the winner of the first RWC.  I'll admit you had a team that was past its prime but still bloody good.  Then lets face it you go handed a rugby lesson by Aus in the semi-final.  I watched the game last night and it was the combination of wallaby defence and the AB handling that was the difference.  By the way watching these old games is funny.  Talk about entering the ruck from the side,, unsupported line out jumping.  While the haka was a totally different event.
 
In 1995 RWC you lost to SA in the grand final .  Lets face it in 1995 the AB were bloody good.  The rise of Lomu and the way the side demolished all and sundry until the "food poisoning incident" which lets face it was self inflicted by going to Pizza Hut.  Lets face it I think everyone expected you blokes to win that.  This one you can probably state if your side was well they would have beaten SA but hell the simple fact is that you didn't win.

The 1999 lost to France in the semi-final was simply abysmal.  Its this one that lead to the chokers tag.  Lets face it your side was blistering and then well f##ked up beyond all belief.  I still remember this game with clarity.  Lomu's 2 tries in the opening were highlighted by the Frog fullback diving out of the way to allow him to score was priceless.  Then .... Well let me just simply state why did you let the off the plane when they arrived back home?

Now lets examine the 2003 lost to Aus in the semi-final.  Australia played like shit for most of the tournament.  Hell dig up the review I did of the wallabies against Scotland.  It was not flattering.  Then on top of that you blokes had been spanking the wallaby senseless for the last 2 years see.  Then well the complete f**k up of the ABs in that game was legendary.  This was when the famous call of "4 more years!" cemented the chokers tag.   I was expecting a AB v Eng final that year and well didn't you blokes disappoint.

Then we have the 2007 loss to France in the quater-finals.  This is NZ worst effort at a RWC.   Hell if you didn't F***k up that game you would have won the comp again. As lets face it the wallabies after the dreadful reign of chucky were still trying to make forwards.  Yet they lost to ENG because Mortlock couldn't buy a kick that game.  You blokes would have whipped the Poms and the the boks in the final but no.   You play all stupid against France and you wonder why the choking tag sticks.

Hell as arguably the world best side the way you seam to stuff up royally during the RWC that has got you this tag and the rest of the world will let you know it until you win again.

Now for 2011 where you will loose to Aus in the final.

[JJ]

I think the ABs will win. It could be against the Wobblies. However usually Oz goes well is when they're very strong defensively. I'm not sure this is true of the current side. Like Geeves I've been watching lots of the past RWCs - in both 91 & 99 they were great in defence, including in the 2003 semi win.
I know this isn't a popular view but I really think the best side the frogs can get on the paddock will be a handful for any team. If they finish 2nd in pool A they'll play the Poms in 1/4s - a game I think they can probably win. Then its likely to be wobblies in semi's. If they make the final against the Boks they'll win & if its the ABs it'll be some contest. Still I do concede it is 3 wins in a row!!
                                          jj   

[irishcure]

Boooooo to this poll. Booooooooooo! Shame on you Geeves.

(karma may deal you a levelling blow come Saturday week!  )

[Geeves]

Boooooo to this poll. Booooooooooo! Shame on you Geeves.

(karma may deal you a levelling blow come Saturday week!  )

Bring it on!!!

What the hell has Ireland being doing lately Irishcure?  Mate I realise that was arguably the greatest game I have ever seen Ireland play when they bitch slapped Eng to deny them the 6 Nations.  But hell to be still be celebrating after 4 losses in a row mate you have got to be worried.  Unless someone smuggled a leprechaun past NZ quarantine I think your chances are looking a bit bleak this time out.  The fact that you have the oldest side rocking into the cup on zimmerframes you had better keep that leprechaun strapped to the injuries.  How's D'Arcy pulling up again?

Your blokes might be advised to contact Suzzie the waitress and put something in Italy's water bottle.  Now lets see who else I can piss off!

[ruggerfan]

Bring it on! The starting 15 for this test against Tonga looks really strong. Heaps of Crusaders as usual looling for a 14 plus win teeehee

[megweya]

Shame on you Geeves.
(karma may deal you a levelling blow come Saturday week!  )

+k to you IrishCure for the blind faith that is the heartbeat of all fans

Bring it on!!!
What the hell has Ireland being doing lately Irishcure? 

Playing like they have their minds on one last big event, not on the game(s) in front of them.
Ireland were so awful in 2007 that the players who have come back 4 years' on must be totally driven on making amends.
(I remembered the sense of several awful performances, but until today I'd forgotten the hideous nature of the 14-10 "victory" over Georgia, that nearly was lost to a late tryline surge by the Georgian forwards)

... arguably the greatest game I have ever seen Ireland play when they bitch slapped Eng to deny them the 6 Nations. 

The 3 greatest games that I have been to are:
* 2011 Heineken Cup - Leinster resurrection in first 15 min of 2nd half against Northants (even _I_ was despondent at half-time)

Old RHs will now yawn as I say ...
* Choke 1 - NZ v Fr RWC 99
* Choke 2 - NZ v Fr RWC 07

(Good news is that I'm not coming to NZ for the RWC ... but my brother will be there for the 2 semis, so I hope the fraternal genes do not spoil the NZ nation's over-powering expectations)

(Ire) have got to be worried.  Unless someone smuggled a leprechaun past NZ quarantine

The leprechaun is called Declan Kidney.
Irish rugby fans fervently believe that at the end of a rainbow you will find a a straight answer from Deccie to a reporter's question ...

you have the oldest side rocking into the cup on zimmerframes

Hmm, didn't Aussies have much the same view about Johnno's Geriatrics in 2003?

How's D'Arcy pulling up again?

Now this could be one of those things that make a campaign.
D'Arcy has been too far below his best for Ireland for several games.
But ... Bowe plays at centre for his club & played there for the Lions in a Test in SA. Also late in one of the warm-up  games Deccie the Leprachaun played O'Gara at 10 and Sexton (Saint of the Heineken Cup final) at 12 (2nd 5/8th) - maybe the D'Arcy hole will be filled in one of those "when needs must" quirks of fate. Even if neither leap of faith arises, McFadden has had many very effective performances for Leinster in the Heinken Cup.


The topic is RWC predictions - so I predict an Ire win over Oz, then an Ire win in the QF - and who knows what iafter that. I think Aus will re-focus and get through to the other SF.  Ire will be too overcome/depleted  to bank on winning, but I fancy Aus if only becuase of the Tri-Nations
clincher-win.

If Earls is the centre choice (though a player with lots of potential), I might start looking around for lots of lucky shamrock & Holy Water ...

It's good to be back on RH after a long while - I'll be around for a while now.

Cheers (and no fears)

Megweya

[Geeves]

The 3 greatest games that I have been to are:
* 2011 Heineken Cup - Leinster resurrection in first 15 min of 2nd half against Northants (even _I_ was despondent at half-time)

Old RHs will now yawn as I say ...
* Choke 1 - NZ v Fr RWC 99
* Choke 2 - NZ v Fr RWC 07

At the rate everyone keeps brining these results up.  Some of us might get banned soon!

[Dingo]

Gee I hate this time every four years...my heart says black, hell even my head says black...but somewhere deep inside me is this lingering doubt, a hurt that has been there for 20 years, a disappointment or fear of failure...of fronting up to work in Sydney on a Monday morning at the end of October to be met by a smiling pack of Geeves clones to gloat once more...thank god the rowers are going well.

Have a great cup guys...I am off to the Clock in Surry Hills for 5:30pm to watch the opening stanza....