Free Super12 Predictions

[Jonathan Lowe]

For those interested in free Super12 Rugby Union predictions goto

www.sportpunter.com

Last week we had money on the chiefs to defeat the blues at $13.00 as well as the Hurricanes at $3.35.

In Round 1 we predicted that the ACT would defeat the blues with a probability of 50.7%. They did at odds of $3.70.

So far in 3 rounds we have managed to increase our bank account of $1,000 to almost $3,500 with a 98% profit on investment!

So if you're interested in FREE Super12 Predictions goto
www.sportpunter.com

[Teach]

I had a look at this website, because I work with a Jonathan Lowe. Not the same one apparently....
There is a model (hidden) which gives the probabilities of s12 results.

Based on NZ TAB odds, it seems like the best expected values on H2H S12 bets this week are Stormers, Bulls, Reds - in that order.

I'll try out the man's model (in virtual mode) for a while and post my results.

This week I bet $35
Reds:        $12 @ 2.50,  p(win)= 44.7%, e(return) = $13.41
Bulls:        $13 @ 2.35,   p(win)=52.7%, e(return)= $16.10
Stormers: $10 @ 3.00,   p(win)=42.5%, e(return)= $12.75

None of the other games have any positive return bets in NZ (because the TAB is too greedy with their cut)

So the theoretical result is $42.26 from a $35 stake

The three bets are designed to each return about $30, so I just need one win to be $5 down from where I started.

2 or 3 wins and I'm laughing (and wishing that I had added a zero and really made the bets).
 
It's a pity that the betting comp is gone from the Rugbycomp site. It would save me some hassle now. Also it was my favourite part of Rugbycomp.

[Teach]

Well 3 out of 3 was a pretty flukey start to this test.

I decided that assuming I risked 100% of my capital in week 1 was a bit unrealistic, so assuming I actually started with $60, here is my round 4 result.

Bets          Odds     Stake    Potential   Return     Profit
No Bet                   25.00         25.00     25.00         0%
Reds           2.50    12.00          30.00     30.00      150%
Bulls          2.35     13.00         30.55     30.55      135%
Stormers    3.00     10.00         30.00     30.00      200%
                              60.00                      115.55       93%
 
The bank balance is now $115.55 going into round 5. I've had a look at J Lowe's ideas on betting capital management as well, so using a version of the "Kelly" method, these are my round 5 bets:

Bets          Odds     Stake    Potential
No Bet                   50.55          50.55
Bulls           2.35    30.00          70.50
Chiefs         2.50    25.00          62.50
Stormers     2.00      5.00          10.00
Sharks         3.05      5.00          15.25
                115.55    

Low amounts on the Stormers and Sharks because the TAB odds are only slightly off the modelled probabilities. No bet on the Highlanders because the TAB has it about the same as the model.

[the red army]

Interesting stuff Teach. This is a fascinating area of modern sports. The sportspunter site is definitely worth a look indeed !!

[Teach]

A bit more realistic this week, two wins out of four bets. But because of the way the bets are selected, this is still an 18% profit for the week.

Bets          Odds    Stake        Potential    Result     Profit
No Bet                   50.55          50.55         50.55         0%
Bulls            2.35     30.00          70.50         70.50      135%
Chiefs          2.50    25.00          62.50          0.00     -100%
Stormers      2.00      5.00          10.00          0.00     -100%
Sharks        3.05      5.00          15.25        15.25      205%
                           115.55                        136.30        18%

Bank balance now $136.30 going into round 6

[Teach]

No great bets available this week, so I'm only risking about a third of the bank balance. Three games are worth a punt.

Bets          Odds    Stake        Potential      Result    Profit
No Bet                    81.30          81.30        81.30        0%
Hurricanes      2.65     20.00          53.00        ?
Chiefs            2.25     20.00          45.00         ?
Highlanders    4.00     15.00           60.00        ?

                            136.30                           ?

[Teach]

The Chiefs had a good win and the Hurricanes draw pays half. So $71.50 was returned from my $55.00 of bets. I haven't had a losing week yet!

Round 6 brought a 12% profit on the total bank balance which is now $152.80 (from $60 at the start of round 4).

This week I bet on the three Aussie teams in NZ. Their odds in NZ are just too high.

Brumbies  - $10 @ 2.35
Reds       - $20 @ 3.75
Waratahs  - $40 @ 4.00

No bet - $82.80

I've been wondering why this site is free... probably he is hoping to get people hooked this year and then charge in 2005.

[Teach]

Finally a losing week. In fact all the bets were lost, and it couldn't have come at a better time as I was backing all the Aussies

With this system you are often betting against favourites so there are always going to be bad weeks, but in the long term you will beat the house (assuming the model is correct - I suspect it didn't include the return of Carlos).

Back to $82.80 for round 8.

[Teach]

$30 on Queensland at 1.80 (if I had got in earlier would have got 1.85).

$5 on Sharks at $2.35
$5 on Bulls at $4.75

$42.80 remains in the bank.

[Teach]

Two losses and one win so the balance is now $54.55, just under the $60 starting balance. Glad I wasn't using real money now  

Shame the Reds couldn't beat the Stormers. I thought they had some kind of fortress over there?

I think I can end the test here. The model is pretty good and worth a look if you plan to bet, but there are still risks - it's better as a bit of fun than as a retirement plan!

Disclaimer: this does not constitute actuarial advice